Applying Bayes' Theorem in Deduction

Generalizations

Bayes theorem for 3 events

A version of Bayes' theorem for 3 events results from the addition of a third event C, with P(C)>0, on which all probabilities are conditioned:

P(A\vert B\cap C)={\frac {P(B\vert A\cap C)\,P(A\vert C)}{P(B\vert C)}}

Derivation

Using the chain rule

P(A\cap B\cap C)=P(A\vert B\cap C)\,P(B\vert C)\,P(C)

And, on the other hand

P(A\cap B\cap C)=P(B\cap A\cap C)=P(B\vert A\cap C)\,P(A\vert C)\,P(C)

The desired result is obtained by identifying both expressions and solving for P(A\vert B\cap C).